War leads to unexpected consequences; from rising fertiliser prices to food inflation, from petrol pump shortages to politicians losing control of the affordability policy they were pursuing.

Another unintended consequence of this pivotal moment will be another big jump to renewable energy. Though not everyone agrees.

Britain's (anti-Net Zero) Reform party mounted a brilliant piece of media manipulation and PR opportunism in Buxton this week.

Farage is effectively exploiting the opportunity. Can the same be said for those on the side of renewable energy? Not so far.

Will the crisis see a boost for homegrown clean power over imported fossil fuels? Or will countries shift to dirtier fuels like coal, or politically unpalatable ones like Russian gas? The Ukraine invasion shows that both outcomes can be true concurrently.

China, enormously reliant on foreign energy imports and the world's leading electrostate will surely 'blitzscale' its renewable energy tech production, even as it fires up coal-fired power stations if the war drags on.

The Iran Disruption Is More Than Just a Headwind, It’s the Argument.

Oil at $100 a barrel (and briefly $120 on Monday 9th) is excalty what a volatile, geopolitically entangled, structurally vulnerable energy system looks like. And who suffers? Households and businesses who will see prices rise in July (UK) by about 10% according to forecasts.

But it's not the price rise alone that's the issue, it's the anxiety and uncertainty that it creates. And not just in energy. Oil is used to create fertiliser and chemicals, so our food and household goods are going to inflate in price too.

The truth is, we're going to see more rather than less of these cascading shocks rippling through linked ecosystems in our economies in the near future.

THIS is the renewable energy proposition.

The case for renewable supply, for distributed generation, for energy-as-a-service models that decouple operating costs from geopolitical risk are at their sharpest, right now.

Demand Is Being Deferred Not Cancelled

Right now, people's attention is on energy, no longer such a low-interest category. This kind of focused attention is incredibly expensive to acquire in normal circumstances, but right now, its free.

People are focusing on cost control, if they do anything (and millions won't) they'll be wise to fix their prices ahead of further rises in the price cap in the summer. People will be more interested in solar, in home battery storage, in the running costs of an EV. They'll be open to new ideas. We're hearing that one major energy firm had the most solar panel enquiries ever last week.

For solar, battery and EV charger installations, the rise in interest rates is a problem. It extends the payback period and lowers the monthly saving on offer. But it also reminds people - especially the Retired on fixed monthly budgets - that deploying some capital now to help immunise yourself from price shocks over the next decade is money well spent.

Now Is Not The Time For Energy Companies To Go Dark

There's a difference between converting existing demand and capturing future demand. Those firms that can keep spending now, will reap the benefits when the crisis abates and the wave of demand for renewables, electrification and EVs breaks.

The evidence on marketing investment during downturns is unambiguous. The IPA Databank - the most comprehensive study of marketing effectiveness in existence - consistently shows that brands which maintain share of voice during recessions and market disruptions outperform on both short-term revenue and long-term brand equity versus those that cut.

The effect compounds: the short-term sales free-up cash for continued investment, which builds equity, which lowers the cost of future acquisition.

Solar, batteries, EV chargers are all interest-rate-sensitive capital decisions for people. When the environment shifts - as it will, in weeks, or months - the Total Addressable Market expands rapidly. That's the point at which building strong brand equity really pays back.

The brands with strong equity and warm audiences will capture that wave. The brands that went quiet will be starting from zero.

How Toyota Capitalised On a Previous Energy Crisis

History shows that brands that seek advantage during energy shocks leapfrog the competition.

During the 1973 Oil Crisis, American automakers retreated during the OPEC embargo but Japanese manufacturers went hard on marketing fuel-efficient engines. They gained attention at attractively low rates and fundamentally shifted a whole culture's view of what a reliable car looked like permanently seizing market share.

We're not saying buy a combustion engine Toyota, we're saying there's a parallel market shift about to happen.

We Are All Connected, We All Want Abundant Clean Energy

What the Iran crisis shows us, once again, is that we are all much more closely connected than it first appears. Foreign wars become domestic crises very quickly. It is in all our interests to help reduce conflicts over scarce resources.

There is a brighter, better future around the corner, one where abundant solar and renewable energy fundamentally changes how our lives are lived locally but also the wider geopolitical tensions that surround us. It's time we all made decision to build that world together.

Dealing with Volatility? EdenLab Can Help You Take Advantage

1. Market Signals Sprint

Two-week Adaptive Intelligence sprint mapping what consumers and B2B buyers are actually feeling right now - where attention is, what messages land, where competitors are silent. Gives you the brief before you brief the comms team/agency.

2. Customer Proposition & Messaging Framework

Reframe the narrative for a volatile market. A tight messaging architecture built around stability, independence, increased freedom from the rollercoaster of global energy prices and trust - for both B2C and B2B - that you can run with immediately.

Visit www.edenlab.co or do message me directly to discuss which workstreams fit your immediate priorities.

Thanks to Martin Reed Nic Howell FRSA Charlie Beevor Jeremy Cohen for their ideas and builds on the article.